Robert Higgs of the Independent Institute, blows some holes in the Warmonger-in-chief's argument for shooting first.
It won't do any good of course, Bush is determined to start World War III. I wonder what his plan of action will be when Iraq attacks Israel in retaliation for our attacks on Iraq after the war starts. In light of Israel's emboldened position since our excursion into Afghanistan, I don't see them holding back this time against Iraq should scud missiles find their way to Israeli shores.
What then? Does the Administration really think that other Gulf nations will sit idly by while the U.S. and Israel jointly bomb Iraq? Are Bush and Cheney prepared to commit U.S. troops against 3, 4 or 5 nations at once if things get out of hand? They very easily could. Without the full support of either Turkey or Kuwait, we will be forced to rely on aircraft carriers and long distance attack flights, leading to more pilot fatigue, increasing the chances of civilian casualties. Civilian casualties = less support from allies and American citizens alike. Further, without the use of either Turkish or Kuwaiti bases, operations could easily drain our Naval forces, forcing a large portion of our in-service fleet to occupy and control the Gulf in order to ensure secure operations. Sure, we have a lot of ships in mothballs, but it will take a lot of money and time to get them serviceable again. In the meantime, the more Naval vessels moved to the Gulf, the less protection there will be in other areas.
This war stuff requires more thought than the current Administration seems willing to commit. I'm more and more relieved that my Honorable Discharge is hanging on my wall. The current crew calling the shots is going to produce a lot of unnecessary casualties and very well may provoke further terrorist actions on American soil. Such a serious and deadly business requires serious people. I'm afraid they are in short supply at 1600 Pennsylvania Avenue.
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This entry also posted at Stand Down.
There is no way to commit to 3 or 4 fronts simultaneously in the Middle eastern theatre. Not unless our new enemies give us 90 days notice.
Our army was designed to fight heavy Soviet armor in a 400 square mile front with ample rail. German bridges were specially reinforced just to handle our divisions.
Most of the equipment to be used was pre-positioned, and we thought we’d be lucky to get ten days—ten days to fly as many troops over as we could.
Thus there was never any effort to convert our army to ready shipping. We have to contract most of it out and it takes a great deal of time to get the “mountain of iron” in logistical support onto the ships.
This is why, other than Special Forces, the first troops into Afghanistan were Marines. Not one army division has been deployed to Afghanistan.
Should the trigger be pulled for Iraq, it wont be until there’s been at least 90 days of sustained shipping—shipping we cannot readily do. It’s not just a matter of hulls, it’s also training the army to get everything into and out of them quickly.
Furthermore, assuming we do get it all to the theatre there’s no guarantee it will work. The Brits just made a budget allocation to convert all their armor for desert conditions—it would have lasted only a week without modification. The US M1A Abrams is so heavy it is virtually a prisoner to open terrain, for it can easily be trapped by third world bridges too weak to support it. That mountain or iron has too be dragged along too.
This is what inspires all the talk of “transformation” at the Pentagon—stripping the army to a light mobile force, easy to quickly ship, easy to supply because of the light logistical load. The force should also be much more mobile in theatre.
Ever wonder why there was so much Brit collaboration in the mountains of Afghanistan? Because they truly do have mountain trained troops—ours are in name only. We only know how to move huge cumbersome armored divisions around, and barely anything else. The army does conduct urban combat training, at least.
We have 2 very effective airborne dvisions we can move quickly, but only 2. Plus the Marines. Without 90 days notice, the Army is stranded at home. We’re not nearly as all-powerful as we think.
Posted by paradox on October 31, 2002 03:07 PM